Well we have a 2016 Subaru Legacy and a 2015 Toyota Sienna and they are both great cars in great shape and fairly new. The legacy has 51k miles and the Sienna has 85k miles. So they have I think a lot of life in them. If we did the 10 year rule we have another 3 years left on the Sienna and 4 years on the legacy. I've always thought that we would replace both cars in about 2-3 years and keep the Sienna but replace the legacy with another sedan and then get a SUV but keep the Sienna. Mostly because it'll be getting very worthless at 10 years and it's very useful to haul stuff and people around in a pinch. But I'd like to also think we could afford to have a third car and still buy me something newish if not new.
In the past we had considered buying a used BMW i3 or Nissan Leaf because they were cheap. They would replace the Subaru Legacy but we just didn't want to spend the money. We've owned our cars since 2019 for the subaru and 9/2020 for Sienna. We are coming up on 2 years without car payments again (we previously went from 2003-2010 without a car payment then got into a cycle of car payments till 2020.
But back to the topic at hand. On the Legacy we drove 367 gallons of gas last year. At the current price of $4.39/gallon that is $1611.37/year in gas. We drove 340 gallons of gas on the Sienna. $1492.60. So it's more likely we'd replace the Legacy sedan because there isn't a viable option to replace the Sienna. The Tesla X isn't really as big, much nicer but there are other nice SUV more comparable for practical purposes.
$1611/year in gas minus electric costs plus maintenance of the car is what we would be saving. You can't count tires, but more like oil changes 2x/year at $100 = $200 and once every 3 years $900 for 30k mile service. So $500/year or I could estimate say $900/ year so $2500/year is what we could be saving having an electric car.
A long range Tesla model 3 is $51k plus taxes and fee so $55k/$2500 year = 22 years to break even. But living what if gas costs $6/gallon? Then $2202/year in gas for our subaru legacy plus $800/year maintenance = $3k. That would still be 18 years to break even.
Even with the tax credits it's not financially advantagous for us to buy an electric car. One day it might make sense, like our cars need replacement or they get into an acccident. But otherwise? Have you actually looked at what it would cost to get one? And what you would really save