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Are we in a recession?

January 11th, 2016 at 10:20 am

Are we in a recession and don't know it? A few of my friends have had close calls with their jobs. They've had layoffs and survived. One friend went back in the middle of maternity leave because her boss called her and told her layoffs were coming please come back so he could save her. She did and she was saved.

I feel like more than a few of my friends in different industries and different jobs have mentioned feeling insecure and looking or switching jobs. It's weird because gas prices are down but food prices are up. The housing market is supposedly still really "hot" but it's hard to tell with the seasonal market and if it hit a peak.

How is the economy where you are? How is the housing market?

10 Responses to “Are we in a recession?”

  1. LuckyRobin Says:

    I believe we are in a recession. I'm not sure we ever really came out of the last one. I kind of think we are headed for a depression, actually. Houses are sitting a long time here. Gas is down. Food is actually down here, lots of sales going on, especially on frozen or canned fruit and veggies, fresh potatoes, sweet potatoes, cabbage, oranges, milk and meats. It's a little high on fresh greens, but they are out of season, so that's normal. Bread is high, but over all it seems to be trending low where I live. The big aluminum mill in my county is shutting down half the plant and early retiring or laying off half the employees. My FIL is taking the retirement package in March. He would have retired in October anyway, but gets a better severance by going in March. My husband says there is a lot of rumbling about contracts where he works, and they have laid people off. As long as his company gets the next contract due sometime between March and June, he's good for another 5 years. If not, he's always been able to switch companies to the one who does get the contract, but who knows if he will this year. Oil jobs are being hit hard.

  2. John Says:

    Though showing signs of slowing, the US economy is as strong as it has been in recent times. The job data has been very strong and the economy has been overall growing at a decent pace. Guess it depends on which industry you are working in.

  3. Buendia Says:

    Our city (and state) still hasn't completely recovered from the last recession! Our housing market never completely recovered either. I am seeing construction projects starting, but not that many... As an architect, that is scary.

  4. creditcardfree Says:

    No idea. Housing was booming where we moved from. Here they are still building, but seems at a slower pace. I have seen houses that have been on the market before we moved still sitting for sale.

  5. MonkeyMama Says:

    I'd say that 2001 - 2015 was a giant recession that was never recovered from. (I think there was some respite in the middle there, but not for very long). As to right now? Jobs are very abundant, to a point I have not seen since before the tech bust. Everyone we know, mostly perpetually unemployed, all seem to be employed now. This is all new, within the last year or so. My dh is on that list, as the economy seemed to turn 180 degrees while we blinked. I never expected anything to come from this potential job after any past experience (usually 1,000+ people fighting for every single job opening). Suddenly the masses disappeared because they found better jobs? Even my dad is considering a job offer. (He wasn't looking and gave up on the economy several years ago).

    I am wary to call it the "end" of the recession, but it is a nice upswing, locally.

  6. MonkeyMama Says:

    P.S. I have been noticing a lot of companies, utilities, government, etc. trying to push cost increases this year after many years of keeping everything artificially low. I've always said we have never increased our spending. But, this year will be a little trying. I've been able to say that for about 15 years, but I don't know if I can for much longer. It seemed everyone increased their rates this year. Property taxes are increasing as housing recovers, etc. Minimum wage is increasing significantly, here, which obviously increases prices too. If my dh can find work and my boss can start to increase his artificially low/recession rates, then maybe it will all even out in the end.

  7. FrugalTexan75 Says:

    The unemployment rate in NE, and in my town in particular is really low - which makes it difficult to find people to fill open jobs. We've had 9 openings for bus drivers which took nearly five months to fill ... and I think 2 of them have already quit. So .. back to looking for more.

    I have read that the economy in NE is slowing some, but still overall is pretty good.

  8. Miz Pat Says:

    I believe we are stll in a recession. We appear to be in a slow recovery.

    However, there are still homeless families out there. Not good.

  9. Tabs Says:

    From a strictly numerical point of view, no we are not in a recession. GDP growth, for example, is still up, albeit at a very low rate (I think I read only 1.5% the last quarter or two, but I could be wrong).

    Also, unemployment rate has been steadily declining from a peak 10% back in uh... hold on let me go check... 2009, to 5% now and holding steady in end of 2015.

    To top it off, the Fed decided to raise interest rate for the first time since our recession....

    So, from a macro-economic perspective, no, we are not in a recession. But as it has been mentioned in the past, recessions tend to be personal. Even if the economy overall is doing great, if you and everyone else around you isn't doing all that great, then things are still terrible. And the personal economics is what really matters to us individually.

    Final note about gas prices: I don't know what Saudi Arabia is doing but they are nuts. Nuts. Oil prices are severely depressed to the point that, really, nobody in OPEC is making money. All that just to stave off the inevitable resurgence of the US gas industry. I hope SA (not this SA haha) has a clear end game in mind with a net positive outcome. But petrol-politics aside, hey at least we consumers are gaining from this right? Cheap gas prices at the pumps.

  10. Livingalmostlarge Says:

    Gas is cheap because saudi arabia is trying to drive US shale industry out of business and iran. It is nice for us right now but I wonder what will happen long term.

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